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May 22, 2025
Medina Lake approaching historic low
By Jessica Nohealapa’ahi
The Bandera Prophet
With the exception of some minute ebb and flow, Medina Lake’s water level continues to drop daily, and not much relief is expected in the immediate future. As of this morning, the lake level is at 968.79 feet above sea level, or 1.9 percent capacity. Though this isn’t the lowest the lake has been, that day seems to be coming.
In April 1948, the lake’s water level hit a record low of 936 feet above sea level, according to reports. Through the years, levels fluctuated with bouts of rain, draining and drought, nearly emptying again in 2015 before reaching full capacity at 1,064 feet in July 2019. Currently in dead pool status, the lake level is so low that it cannot be tapped.
Medina Lake was created in 1913 when the dam was built on the Medina River, which feeds and is fed by the lake. A combination of opening the dam to supplement agricultural irrigation and extreme drought have decimated the lake, as well as the wildlife and community that depend on it.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows Bandera County in D4 exceptional drought, meaning “water levels are at or near historic lows; devastaing algae blooms occur; water quality is very poor; widespread crop loss is reported; rangeland is dead; producers are not planting fields; water table is declining; exceptional water shortages are noted across surface water sources; extreme sensitivity to fire danger; firework restrictions are implemented; widespread tree mortality is reported; most wildlife species’ health and population are suffering.”
The only way the lake will refill is with heavy rainfall. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an ENSO-neutral pattern is favored through the northern hemisphere this summer (74 percent chance from June to August), with chances exceeding 50 percent from August to October. This transitional period between La Niña moving out and El Niño potentially taking affect next year indicates neither pattern will influence Texas’ weather now, and seasonal norms will return. La Niña is marked by arid and hotter conditions, while El Niño typically brings more rain and cooler conditions to the state.
The National Weather Service forecasts possible rain next week, and an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is predicted. For 2025, 13-19 storms are named, six to 10 hurricanes are expected, with three to five of those hurricanes categorized as major. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and ends Nov. 30.
In April 1948, the lake’s water level hit a record low of 936 feet above sea level, according to reports. Through the years, levels fluctuated with bouts of rain, draining and drought, nearly emptying again in 2015 before reaching full capacity at 1,064 feet in July 2019. Currently in dead pool status, the lake level is so low that it cannot be tapped.
Medina Lake was created in 1913 when the dam was built on the Medina River, which feeds and is fed by the lake. A combination of opening the dam to supplement agricultural irrigation and extreme drought have decimated the lake, as well as the wildlife and community that depend on it.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows Bandera County in D4 exceptional drought, meaning “water levels are at or near historic lows; devastaing algae blooms occur; water quality is very poor; widespread crop loss is reported; rangeland is dead; producers are not planting fields; water table is declining; exceptional water shortages are noted across surface water sources; extreme sensitivity to fire danger; firework restrictions are implemented; widespread tree mortality is reported; most wildlife species’ health and population are suffering.”
The only way the lake will refill is with heavy rainfall. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an ENSO-neutral pattern is favored through the northern hemisphere this summer (74 percent chance from June to August), with chances exceeding 50 percent from August to October. This transitional period between La Niña moving out and El Niño potentially taking affect next year indicates neither pattern will influence Texas’ weather now, and seasonal norms will return. La Niña is marked by arid and hotter conditions, while El Niño typically brings more rain and cooler conditions to the state.
The National Weather Service forecasts possible rain next week, and an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is predicted. For 2025, 13-19 storms are named, six to 10 hurricanes are expected, with three to five of those hurricanes categorized as major. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and ends Nov. 30.